June 26, 2005
When a 20% chance is absolutely painful – Alaska Air on-time statistics
Omar recently had yet another rant about Alaska Air.
People who don’t fly Alaska regularly don’t quite seem to grasp the severity of what this is such a problem. Delayed flight are normal right?
Well let’s run through a typical scenario: Earlier that day, you had woken up at 5am to fly to Redmond in time for a day full of meetings starting at 10am. 8 hours of meetings later, you leave main campus, fight Friday afternoon traffic and get to SeaTac – where the rental car return lot has moved yet again. You go through the masses of weekend leisure travelers and get to your gate. It’s been a long long day.
And then, you realize that your flight back to home sweet home has the following statistic:
Yes, that’s right. 20%. That means that your flight at 8:46pm has a 1 in 5 chance of pushing back on time.
What this really means is that your flight home has an 80% chance of being late.
Suddenly the odds don’t sound that good, do they?
Your flight will end up departing at 9, 9:20, 9:45, or 10pm. And you’ll get home at around 11:45, midnight, or 12:30.
What a way to end the week.
Now do you get it?
6 Comments to “When a 20% chance is absolutely painful – Alaska Air on-time statistics”
June 26th, 2005 at 10:13 pm
No I don’t get it. So many people have a life filled with way more hardship than yours. Stop whining and keep driving your BMW.
June 26th, 2005 at 11:30 pm
Ouch
June 27th, 2005 at 11:32 am
Rose and I know exactly what you’re talking about. This past Friday, she was on flight 324 SEA – SJC. It was delayed… 2 hours delayed. Actually, everything was delayed 1-2 hours.
I wish they’d give customers a little transparency on what’s going on. Is there bad weather? Did a flight crew just quit? Is it just impossible for the flight to be on time becuase of logistical reasons?
If a flight only has a 20% chance of being on time, you’d think that’s something that should be fixed ASAP…
June 27th, 2005 at 11:52 am
The afternoon delays are typically a consequence of the cascade effect – delays are cumulative.
June 27th, 2005 at 2:58 pm
Check this out:
http://www.transtats.bts.gov/OT_Delay/OT_DelayCause1.asp?pn=1
July 7th, 2005 at 4:30 pm
Hey sorry for being harsh earlier. I was in a similar, albeit different, situation with much greater consequences.
At any rate, here’s a guy that had a similar problem to you while on his way to Seattle.
http://www.minuk.org/blog/archives/2005/07/07/on-the-road-again/
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