“easy oil is over” says Chevron

The Breaking Point - New York Times

”That’s not how you would manage a national, let alone an international, economy,” he explained. ”That’s the part that is scary. You draw some assumptions and then say, ‘O.K., based on these assumptions, let’s go forward and consume like hell and burn like hell.”’ When I asked whether the kingdom could produce 20 million barrels a day — about twice what it is producing today from fields that may be past their prime — Husseini paused for a second or two. It wasn’t clear if he was taking a moment to figure out the answer or if he needed a moment to decide if he should utter it. He finally replied with a single word: No.

Peak Oil isn’t just about running out of oil, as most people think - it’s about not being able to produce enough to meet the constantly growing need.

If you have some time, I suggest you read this piece.

The ending of this piece is poignant:

In the political and corporate realms of the oil world, there are few incentives to be forthright. Executives of major oil companies have been reluctant to raise alarms; the mere mention of scarce supplies could alienate the governments that hand out lucrative exploration contracts and also send a message to investors that oil companies, though wildly profitable at the moment, have a Malthusian long-term future. Fortunately, that attitude seems to be beginning to change. Chevron’s ”easy oil is over” advertising campaign is an indication that even the boosters of an oil-drenched future are not as bullish as they once were.

Politicians remain in the dark. During the 2004 presidential campaign, which occurred as gas prices were rising to record levels, the debate on energy policy was all but nonexistent. The Bush campaign produced an advertisement that concluded: ”Some people have wacky ideas. Like taxing gasoline more so people drive less. That’s John Kerry.” Although many environmentalists would have been delighted if Kerry had proposed that during the campaign, in fact the ad was referring to a 50-cents-a-gallon tax that Kerry supported 11 years ago as part of a package of measures to reduce the deficit. (The gas tax never made it to a vote in the Senate.) Kerry made no mention of taxing gasoline during the campaign; his proposal for doing something about high gas prices was to pressure OPEC to increase supplies.

Husseini, for one, doesn’t buy that approach. ”Everybody is looking at the producers to pull the chestnuts out of the fire, as if it’s our job to fix everybody’s problems,” he told me. ”It’s not our problem to tell a democratically elected government that you have to do something about your runaway consumers. If your government can’t do the job, you can’t expect other governments to do it for them.” Back in the 70’s, President Carter called for the moral equivalent of war to reduce our dependence on foreign oil; he was not re-elected. Since then, few politicians have spoken of an energy crisis or suggested that major policy changes are necessary to avert one. The energy bill signed earlier this month by President Bush did not even raise fuel-efficiency standards for passenger cars. When a crisis comes — whether in a year or 2 or 10 — it will be all the more painful because we will have done little or nothing to prepare for it.

Crisis indeed.