The Power Lunch, Cafeteria-Style - WSJ.com
The concept — dubbed Lunch 2.0 by its founders — has grown into a social-networking phenomenon that now draws hundreds of engineers, venture capitalists, and even summer interns to various companies for free meals and conversation. It used to be that the group, which initially consisted of fewer than 10 people, practically had to sneak through a company’s doors. Some attendees would get in with friends who were employees, while others sneaked by security. (Google, where it all started, allows employees to bring guests to the company’s cafeteria. Mr. Jen got in with a friend who worked there.)

Congrats to the folks at Lunch 2.0 on the mention in the WSJ!

Wow, I guess I haven’t been to one so long that they now regularly have 200-300 people. I think the last one I went to was the one I helped Bubba hold at Microsoft. Crimminy!

I’m looking for a Santa Rosa-based laptop for my wife. I’m really hoping to spend $1000 or less.

The process for shopping for PC laptops in generally is pretty bewildering. On HP’s site alone, I counted 20 different laptop/tablet models. Then there’s Dell’s assortment, Lenovo’s assortment, Fujitsu, Sony, etc etc etc. The model numbers are swirling in my head. The configs are endless.

Some see this as freedom - and thus a good thing. It’s a sign that the PC ecosystem is doing great and that consumers are provided lots of choices. To me, I wonder how many consumers are consumed by the Paradox of Choice and analysis paralysis.

Buying a Mac laptop is far easier:  3 models. MacBook, MacBook Pro 15, MacBook Pro 17.

Sure these choices are restrictive - but sometimes, simplicity is freedom.

I’m probably going to pop by SES Tuesday morning when it opens, check out the booths, and then go back to work around lunch-ish. Anyone interested in meeting up?

I don’t watch a whole lot of TV, but one of my favorite shows happens to be Seconds from Disaster on National Geographic Channel. The pitch for this show is “See how disasters are caused by a sequence of events locked together in time.” In other words, if something bad happens - it’s an accidents. It takes a few of these things to lead to a disaster.

Though the show is typically about fiery things like TWA Flight 800 and King’s Cross Fire, this current mortgage fiasco is something that follows the recipe from the show. For a while now, I’ve pretty much predicted and tried to explain the coming disaster to anyone who would listen. It was never a matter of “if”, but a matter of “when”.

The signs were there all along:

• Appraisers being told by mortgage brokers what the value of a property should be, instead of the other way around. (Oh, and being blacklisted if they didn’t comply.)
• An unemployed 24 year old web designer acquired $2.2 million dollars in loans to buy ~8 houses - allegedly admitting to committing fraud in national media, but having no consequences.
• A strawberry picker with a $15,000 year income qualified for a loan of $720,000.
• The rise of Negative Amortization loans, where it’s like paying the minimum on a credit card each month. In the Bay Area, this went from 1.7% of all mortgages in 2002, to 28.3% in 2005.
• When the median mortgage consumes 61.2% of a median paycheck (LA) or 48% of a median paycheck (SJ).
• People start saying things like “new economic model” and ”new paradigm“ with regards to real estate.
• Mortgage brokers asking customers how much they wanted to borrow, instead of telling them how much they could borrow (happened to a friend.) 
• Sellers requiring that buyers sign contracts to “feed the squirrels” as part of their offers.
• Dramatic rises in house prices, with relatively flat income growth, and decreases in population:

Back in March, I had lunch with Alex, and one of the things we ended up talking about was: “Why are lenders giving out money to such high risk clients?” The answer was the fact that there’s so much money chasing after returns. Or, in other words, “Everyone else is doing it - what are you, chicken?”

Part of the confusion is that a lot of people still think that mortgages are given out the old way: you go to a bank, apply, they tell you how much you can afford, you get the loan, you pay it back to the bank. What’s been happening in the last few years is that mortgage brokers sell you access to a loan, give you a loan, and then sell the loan to lots of individual investors - hedge funds, retirement/pension funds, etc. (Notice that there’s 2 sells in that statement.) Think of it as a big game of hot potato.

And for a while it worked. There was a virtuous circle: lending standards were low, people could get larger more affordable mortgages, home prices would be bid up, paper property values would rise, people would feel richer, people would take out loans on their homes and spend more money, the economy would go up, etc.

Things like these start getting published:

 
(The latter was written by the then Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors)

Here’s a graph that shows how much the economy was impacted by Mortgage Equity Withdrawal - e.g. using your home as an ATM:

Everyone’s a winner! Until… they’re not.

Like perpetual motion, eventually something has to give. Eventually interest rates rise, or people with teaser 2% interest rate loans get bumped to 7% and see their monthly payments double/triple, and the virtuous cycle becomes a vicious cycle. The defaults begin. Suddenly all those eager investors buying those loans say “DO NOT WANT“, mortgage companies can’t sell mortgages (and might have to hold them, leading to massive problems), buyers can’t new mortgages to buy, owners can’t get refinances to pay bills, sellers have a bit more trouble selling their homes, people start feeling down and spending less.

Oh - and then it gets worse. Investors really start wondering how bad the problem is, everyone tries to dump all these mortgages toxic or not, everyone starts looking to move to something safe like cash, etc etc etc.

And that’s where we are today.

These are historic times - the central banks certainly have their work cut out for them to find the right balance between preventing the finance market from coming to a complete halt, and preventing inflation. Very interesting times for sure.

I wonder where the next bubble will be.

This is a classic site:

Brooklyn StoreFronts
Index for Album BrooklynStores: Brooklyn StoreFronts
This started as a project to post pictures of dealers mentioned in articles posted to the rec.photo.digital newsgroup. I have since tried to make it inclusive of all the digital camera dealers in Brooklyn. These give me destinations, and a reason to go bicycling. See the article in the NY Times on me and this page: In a Flash, Camera Dealers Feel the Web’s Wrath (except I wear flannel and not denim shirts). Also see pictures of Manhattan StoreFronts and StoreFronts in Other Locations. Tips and stories are most welcome. Use e-mail link at bottom of page.

I especially like the photo for one of the addresses of Abe’s of Maine which shows up a lot in some price search engines:

If you think the stores shown here are sketchy, just imagine what it was like buying a camera in person at these places before the Internet. Any readers remember the original 47th Street Photo?

Some great new Hotmail features out there today. You can learn more about it at the official blog. I like the last bulletpoint.

I’d consider myself moved into San Carlos now.

I used Oasis Movers (ask for Wendy) which a fellow MSFTer recommended: 415-756-3188

I’ve moved 3 times now - this was the fastest one even though it was the greatest distance.

Some at work noticed that his phone’s battery had swollen up so much that it popped the battery cover off his phone.

Here are his photos comparing his bad battery, with a colleague’s good battery. Can you guess which one is bad?

Someone claimed that swollen batteries is a fail state (as opposed to spontaneous combustion - not as desirable). I’m not battery expert - but that’s a pretty funny looking battery.